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US Fed study of economic uncertainty indices finds spikes in trade policy this month

By Neil Roland ( April 29, 2025, 20:43 GMT | Insight) -- A US Federal Reserve study of six key drivers of uncertainty and their impact on economic activity and financial conditions since 1990 finds that trade policy protrudes far beyond the others. The mid-April time frame coincides with the imposition of unprecedented tariffs by President Trump this month. "Trade Policy Uncertainty" skyrocketed over 16 standard deviations above its historical mean, the study said. The second highest digression was "Economic Policy Uncertainty," which also reached a new peak of 8.3 standard deviations above its historical mean in mid-April, the study said.A US Federal Reserve study of six key drivers of uncertainty and their impact on economic activity and financial conditions since 1990 finds that trade policy protrudes far beyond the others.  ...

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